Economic Update 08/01/16

CONFIDENCE INDICES HOLD STEADY

Rising half a point from its previous reading, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index finished July at 90.0. The Conference Board’s monthly household confidence gauge came in at 97.3 last week, near its (revised) June mark of 97.4.

ROUNDING UP THE LATEST REAL ESTATE NEWS

New Census Bureau data shows new home sales up 3.5% in June after a 6.0% May setback. Pending sales of existing homes increased 0.2% in June, reported the National Association of Realtors. The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index (20-city composite) rose 0.9% in May, putting its annualized gain at 5.2%.

ECONOMY GREW JUST 1.2% IN Q2

The Bureau of Economic Analysis disappointed Wall Street with its initial estimate of second quarter GDP. Economists polled by Bloomberg expected growth of 2.5%. While household consumption rose 4.2% in Q2, private fixed investment took its biggest quarterly fall since 2009, slipping 3.2%.

STOCKS PULL BACK A BIT

July ended with the S&P 500 at 2,173.60, the Nasdaq at 5,162.13, and the Dow at 18,432.24. Their performance numbers for the week: S&P, -0.07%; Nasdaq, +1.22%; Dow, -0.75%.

THIS WEEK: Monday, ISM issues its July manufacturing PMI and AMC, AmeriGas, CNA Financial, Frontier Communications, Loews, Macerich, and Vulcan Materials offer earnings. June consumer spending numbers arrive Tuesday, in addition to earnings from Aetna, Archer Daniels Midland, Avis Budget Group, Choice Hotels, Cummins, CVS Health, DreamWorks, Electronic Arts, Fitbit, Genworth Financial, Hanesbrands, Hyatt Hotels, Martin Marietta, Molson Coors, Papa John’s, Pfizer, Pitney Bowes, Procter & Gamble, Royal Caribbean, and Seagate Technology. ADP’s July payrolls report emerges Wednesday, plus ISM’s services PMI and earnings from Allstate, Clorox, GoDaddy, Herbalife, Humana, Marathon Oil, MetLife, Noble Energy, Occidental Petroleum, Office Depot, Prudential, Tesla, Tesoro, Time Warner, Transocean, 21st Century Fox, and Western Union. Thursday, initial claims figures and the July Challenger job-cut report complement earnings from Activision Blizzard, AMC Networks, Chesapeake Energy, Duke Energy, Fluor, Icahn Enterprises, iheartMedia, Jamba, Kellogg, Kemper, LinkedIn, Lions Gate, Parker-Hannifin, Priceline, Sempra Energy, Symantec, Take-Two, TripAdvisor, Viacom, Wingstop, and Zynga. The federal government’s July jobs report appears Friday, plus earnings from Kraft Heinz, U.S. Cellular, Virgin America, Weyerhaeuser, and William Lyon Homes.