Economic Update 07/27/15

EXISTING HOME SALES UP, NEW HOME SALES DOWN

According to the National Association of Realtors, residential resales increased 3.2% in June with the median home value hitting an all-time peak of $236,400, 6.5% higher than a year ago. New home buying subsided 6.8% last month with the median sales price at $281,800, representing a 1.8% year-over-year decline. Even so, the pace of new home sales improved 21.2% across the first six months of 2015.

LEADING INDICATOR INDEX RISES 0.6%

This June advance for the Conference Board’s LEI followed its 0.8% May gain; the LEI has risen at least 0.6% for the past three months. Six of its 10 indicators improved in June; only one declined.

TRYING WEEK FOR STOCKS, GOLD & OIL

Earnings letdowns sent the Dow down 2.86% last week, the Nasdaq down 2.33%, and the S&P 500 down 2.21%. Friday, the Dow settled at 17,568.53, the Nasdaq at 5,088.63, and the S&P at 2,079.65. Gold closed Friday at its lowest level since early June: $1,085.50. Futures fell 2.3% for the week on the COMEX. West Texas Intermediate crude prices slipped 5.4% in five days to a Friday close of $48.14.

THIS WEEK: Earnings from Baidu, Norfolk Southern, Norwegian Cruise Line, Plantronics, Rent-A-Center, The Hartford, and Wynn Resorts arrive Monday plus a report on June durables. Tuesday, the Conference Board’s July consumer confidence index and May’s Case-Shiller home price index complement earnings from Airgas, Akamai, Aflac, Ally Financial, Anadarko Petroleum, Buffalo Wild Wings, Cummins, D.R. Horton, Express Scripts, Ford Motor Co., Ingersoll-Rand, JetBlue, Merck, Panera, Pfizer, Twitter, UPS, U.S. Steel, Sirius XM, and Yelp. Wednesday, the Federal Reserve issues its latest policy statement, NAR provides its June pending home sales index, and earnings appear from Altria, Anthem, BlackRock, Callaway, CBRE, Garmin, Choice Hotels, Constellation Software, DIRECTV, Exelon, Facebook, General Dynamics, Goodyear, HealthSouth, Hilton, Humana, LifeLock, Marriott, MasterCard, MetLife, Noble Corp., Northrop Grumman, NutriSystem, O’Reilly, PG&E, Public Storage, Revlon, and Whole Foods. New initial claims numbers arrive Thursday plus the first estimate of Q1 GDP and earnings from Amgen, Avon, Cigna, Coca-Cola, Colgate-Palmolive, ConocoPhillips, Diebold, Edison, Electronic Arts, Expedia, Fiat Chrysler, LinkedIn, Monster, Occidental Petroleum, Pitney Bowes, Procter & Gamble, Starwood Hotels & Resorts, T-Mobile, Time Warner Cable, Universal Health, Valero, Fluor, Ingram Micro, and Virgin America. Friday, July’s final University of Michigan consumer index appears, plus earnings from Chevron, ExxonMobil, Royal Caribbean, Seagate, Tyco, and Weyerhaeuser.