Economic Update

CAUTIOUS SPENDING, BUT IMPRESSIVE GROWTH Personal income and personal spending both rose 0.2% in October, according to the Commerce Department. Not too impressive? Maybe, but the federal government’s second estimate of Q3 GDP was. Pair the newly revised 3.9% reading with the final 4.6% mark for Q2, and you get the best 6 months for…

RETAIL SALES REBOUND FROM SEPTEMBER SLUMP The 0.3% October gain announced by the Commerce Department exactly offset the September decline. Below the headline number, core retail sales (minus auto buying) also rose 0.3% last month. Sales increased in 11 of 13 categories; online retailers saw a 1.9% boost to lead the pack. Annually, overall retail…

UNEMPLOYMENT DOWN TO 5.8% America’s jobless rate dipped 0.1% in October as companies hired 214,000 new workers. Analysts polled by the Wall Street Journal had expected no improvement. In another nice development, the U-6 rate measuring underemployment plus unemployment fell 0.3% last month to 11.5%, 2.2% lower than a year before. Additionally, the Labor Department…

Q3 GDP IMPRESSES, PERSONAL SPENDING DECLINES Good news: America’s economy expanded 3.5% in the third quarter. The Commerce Department’s initial estimate topped the 3.1% consensus forecast of economists polled by MarketWatch, and offset September retreats in overall hard goods orders (1.3%) and personal spending (0.2%). Personal incomes rose 0.2% last month, the least since December;…

GAINS IN NEW & EXISTING HOME SALES According to the National Association of Realtors, the pace of resales improved 2.4% in September. NAR reported fewer sales of distressed properties and more home sales to families versus investors. The Census Bureau measured only a 0.2% rise in new home buying last month, but a 17.0% annualized…

CONSUMER SENTIMENT: A PLEASANT SURPRISE Ebola fears and a choppy stock market haven’t quite rattled household optimism. At a reading of 86.4 (its highest in more than seven years), the University of Michigan’s initial October consumer sentiment index confounded analysts who expected a decrease from September’s final 84.6 mark. Consensus forecasts from MarketWatch and Briefing.com…

WHEN WILL THE MARKET CALM DOWN? Earnings didn’t preoccupy investors last week; Europe did. The International Monetary Fund warned that the euro area could enter another recession; European Central Bank president Mario Draghi urged EU member nations to go in for quantitative easing, but German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble disagreed. IMF and Federal Reserve officials…

JOBLESS RATE DECLINES TO 5.9% Unemployment lessened another 0.2% in September as firms added 248,000 new workers to their payrolls. The nation hasn’t seen joblessness of less than 6% since July 2008. In presenting its latest report, the Labor Department also revised summer hiring totals: the August job gain went from 142,000 to 180,000, and…

NEW HOME SALES JUMP, RESALES DIP Existing home sales slumped 1.8% in August – their first retreat since March, according to the National Association of Realtors. This followed gains of 2% or more in each of the previous three months. News about new home purchases was better: the Census Bureau recorded an 18.0% increase for…

WHY DID CONSUMER SPENDING DECLINE IN JULY? Last month’s 0.1% dip surprised analysts. In inflation-adjusted terms, the Commerce Department measured the pullback at 0.2%. Household confidence, though, continues to increase. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index finished August at 82.5, up from 81.8 at the end of July and refuting the Wall Street Journal…