Economic Update

A HOLIDAY SHOPPING SEASON TO CELEBRATE Good news from the Commerce Department: November brought a healthy 0.5% gain in personal spending (matching the consensus forecast of economists polled by Briefing.com) and a 0.2% rise in personal income that offset the 0.1% retreat in October. SpendingPulse, which tracks online and in-store retail purchases, says that retail…

FED MAKES ITS MOVE, STOCKS MOVE NORTH In a 9-1 vote last Wednesday, Federal Reserve officials elected to taper the central bank’s monthly economic stimulus beginning in January. The taper was relatively minor – a cut of $10 billion to $75 billion – and the surprise announcement set off a major rally on Wall Street,…

“MINI-BARGAIN” PASSES HOUSE, HEADS FOR SENATE Last week, the congressional budget committee headed by Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) and Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) succeeded where its 2011 predecessor had failed – it reached a deal, albeit a small-scale one. The House passed its budget bill by a 332-94 vote Thursday night; the legislation heads for…

GOOD NEWS ON MAIN STREET Unemployment declined to a 5-year low of 7.0% in November, according to the Labor Department; underemployment also reached its lowest level in five years. The economy added 203,000 new jobs last month, far better than the 180,000 forecast by economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters. October also brought a 0.3% rise…

CONFIDENCE INDEX FALLS, SENTIMENT INDEX RISES Two respected barometers of consumer mood went different ways in November. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index came in at a disappointing 70.4, down from a revised 72.4 mark for October and well below the 74.0 reading forecast by Briefing.com. November’s final consumer sentiment index from the University of…

YELLEN EMPHASIZES FURTHER EASING While conceding that the Federal Reserve’s current stimulus effort “will not continue indefinitely,” Federal Reserve chair nominee Janet Yellen sounded decidedly dovish at her confirmation hearing in the Senate last week. “Supporting the recovery today is the surest path to returning to a more normal approach to monetary policy,” she noted,…

Philippines Donate If you’ve seen any of the footage coming out of the Philippines, you know that Typhoon Haiyan has destroyed not just buildings, roads, and infrastructure, but lives. It is absolutely devastating. My non-profit, The Band of Brothers Foundation, has a school project in the Philippines on a little island that was ground zero…

SHUTDOWN DOESN’T DETER HIRING The Labor Department’s delayed October employment report showed the economy adding 204,000 new jobs last month. Analysts polled by Reuters had only expected a gain of 125,000. The unemployment rate actually rose to 7.3%, as those analysts had predicted. This was a nice Friday surprise for Wall Street, and it also…

AN ARGUMENT AGAINST TAPERING According to the Labor Department, the economy added 148,000 jobs in September. The jobless rate dipped to 7.2%, but job creation has averaged less than 150,000 for three straight months. (August job growth was revised up to 193,000, July job growth down to 89,000.) The University of Michigan’s final October consumer…

HOPES FOR A DEBT DEAL EMERGE After a Friday meeting with President Obama, GOP senators went to work on a bipartisan solution to both the federal budget and federal debt limit impasses, one that would lift the debt limit in exchange for spending cuts. House Republicans introduced a proposal last Thursday to raise the debt…