Economic Update

WILL THE FED MAKE A MOVE IN JUNE? In April, the Consumer Price Index advanced 0.4% – its largest monthly gain since February 2013. While a 10% leap in gasoline prices contributed to that rise, this and other recent signals of economic vigor may be influencing the Federal Reserve. Last week, minutes from the central…

A MAJOR JUMP FOR RETAIL SALES Friday, the Department of Commerce reported a 1.3% April gain in U.S. retail purchases. The core retail sales advance was also impressive at 0.9%. Minus car and truck buying, retail sales were still up 0.8% last month. IMPROVEMENT IN CONSUMER SENTIMENT The University of Michigan’s much-watched household sentiment index…

APRIL JOBS REPORT RAISES QUESTIONS Employers hired 160,000 more workers than they let go last month, and that net job gain was the smallest since September. Does this suggest a job market losing steam, or does it hint at an economy nearing full employment? The hiring number may make the Federal Reserve reconsider the possibility…

INCOME OUTDISTANCES SPENDING Personal income rose 0.4% in March, yet the Commerce Department reported personal spending up just 0.1%. That mild uptick contributed to a poor first quarter for GDP; last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimated Q1 growth at 0.5%. CONSUMER OPTIMISM DECLINES The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dipped 1.9 points in April…

HOME SALES REBOUND Bouncing back from a drop of 7.3% in February, existing home sales improved 5.1% last month. In its March report, the National Association of Realtors announced a median sale price of $222,700, 5.7% higher than a year ago. BUILDERS BREAK GROUND ON FEWER PROJECTS While home sales increased last month, the pace…

HOW WEAK WAS FIRST-QUARTER GROWTH? Economists have reason to wonder given the latest retail sales, industrial output, and inflation figures. Overall retail purchases fell 0.3% in March, though they rose 0.2% minus auto buying; analysts polled by MarketWatch expected a 0.1% gain for the headline number and a 0.5% gain for the core number. Industrial…

FED: APRIL MIGHT BE TOO SOON FOR A RATE HIKE That was the message Wall Street gleaned from the Federal Reserve’s March policy meeting minutes. Several Fed officials, the minutes stated, felt that “raising the target range as soon as April would signal a sense of urgency” that would be untimely. Another passage noted broad…

ANOTHER SOLID JOBS REPORT The latest Labor Department employment report shows net job gains of 215,000 for March. Labor force participation increased last month, and the jobless rate consequently ticked up to 5.0% (the broader U-6 rate edged up to 9.8%). Mean hourly wages rose 7 cents to $25.43, up 2.3% year-over-year. Payrolls expanded by…

MIXED NEWS ON HOME SALES New home buying increased 2.0% in February, with all of the gain attributable to a remarkable 38.5% jump in sales in the West (a region which had witnessed a 32.7% January plunge in new home purchases). In contrast to this Census Bureau data, the National Association of Realtors noted a…

FEDERAL RESERVE SENDS A DOVISH SIGNAL The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-1 to leave interest rates unchanged last week, and it also scaled back its rate hike expectations for 2016. The central bank’s latest dot-plot projects just two interest rate increases by the end of the year with a median forecast of 0.9% for…