Economic Update

JOBS REPORT GIVES THE FED A GREEN LIGHT The economy created 211,000 jobs in November – a healthy hiring total that could prompt the Federal Reserve to tighten for the first time since 2006. Job growth has averaged 218,000 over the past three months (the Labor Department just revised October and November job gains upward…

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE TRENDS DOWN November saw the Conference Board consumer confidence index plummet. It dropped 8.7 points from its revised October mark of 99.1 to 90.4; economists polled by Briefing.com assumed it would rise slightly to 99.6. The CB attributed November’s poor reading (the lowest since September 2014) to declining expectations of job and wage…

RETAIL PURCHASES UP JUST 0.1% IN OCTOBER The tiny increase was actually an improvement, as retail sales were flat in both August and September. Gas station sales tailed off 0.9% in October, car sales 0.5%; offsetting those declines, online retail purchases were up 1.4% last month, spending at restaurants and bars up 0.5%. The Commerce…

142,000 NEW JOBS CREATED IN SEPTEMBER Is a global slowdown impacting the U.S. economy? The latest Labor Department jobs report seemed to say yes. Hiring last month fell far short of the 200,000 total projected by economists in a MarketWatch survey. Moreover, job gains across July and August were revised down by 59,000. There was…

A BIT MORE OPTIMISM AS SEPTEMBER ENDS The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index advanced slightly in the past couple of weeks, rising to a final September mark of 87.2 from its initial reading of 85.7. Regardless, this was the index’s poorest final monthly reading since October 2014. It did surpass the expectations of analysts…

NO SURPRISE: HOUSEHOLD SENTIMENT WANES The initial September edition of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index came in last week at 85.7 – its lowest reading in a year, significantly below its final August mark of 91.9. Given the recent stock market retreat and ongoing headlines about China’s economic slowdown, the closely watched indicator…

PACE OF HIRING SLOWED IN AUGUST Last month, 173,000 Americans found new jobs. Economists polled by MarketWatch forecast 213,000 new hires; analysts surveyed by the Wall Street Journal projected 220,000. There were definite silver linings within this disappointing Labor Department report, however. Annualized wage growth increased to 2.2%. June and July job gains were both…

CHINA DATA, CRUDE PRICES DRIVE MAJOR SELLOFF Fierce headwinds hit Wall Street last week. A report showed that Chinese factory activity hit a 6-year low in July, raising serious doubts about whether that country’s economy was still maintaining 7% annual growth. (The Shanghai Composite lost 4.3% Friday and 11% for the week.) Friday, WTI crude…

SHOPPERS SPEND MORE IN JULY Retail sales rose 0.6% last month according to Commerce Department data, topping the 0.5% gain projected in a Briefing.com poll of economists. This was great news after the flat June reading (which was initially recorded as an 0.3% decline). A SLIGHT DIP IN HOUSEHOLD SENTIMENT Falling 0.2 points to a…

A GREEN LIGHT FOR A RATE HIKE? According to the latest Labor Department report, employers hired 215,000 new workers in July – 77,000 of them in professional, business, education, and health care occupations. The jobless rate held steady at 5.3% while the U-6 rate (unemployment + underemployment) ticked down to 10.4%. Monthly hiring totals have…