Economic Update 07/06/15

WALL STREET HANGS ON AS GREECE DEFAULTS

When Greece revealed it would miss its July 1 debt payment to the International Monetary Fund last Tuesday, the Dow lost 2% for the day while the CBOE VIX gained more than 35%. (To add to the drama, the commonwealth of Puerto Rico stated that its debts were “not payable” on the same day.) Any further bailout of Greece may hinge on its July 5 national popular vote, in which Greeks will decide whether or not to stay in the euro. Stocks did rebound mildly, resulting in the following weekly performances for the major indices: DJIA, -1.22% t0 17,730.11; NASDAQ, -1.90% to 5,009.21; S&P 500, -1.29% to 2,076.78.

ANOTHER SOLID JOBS REPORT, WITH AN ASTERISK

Employers added 223,000 more jobs in June, Labor Department data revealed Friday. The headline jobless rate fell to 5.3% and the U-6 rate measuring “total” unemployment declined to 10.5%, but that was partly due to the labor force participation rate hitting a 38-year low of 62.6.

FACTORIES WERE A BIT BUSIER IN JUNE

So indicated the Institute for Supply Management’s newest manufacturing purchasing manager index. ISM’s factory PMI rose 0.7  points in May to a mark of 53.5, another indication of an economy picking up momentum in spring.

KEY CONFIDENCE BAROMETER RISES

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index beat expectations by topping the century mark in June. It rose 6.8 points from its (revised) May level to 101.4.

NAR, CASE-SHILLER INDICES DISAPPOINT

Last week’s real estate indicators were a touch underwhelming. Analysts polled by Briefing.com thought April’s 20-city Case-Shiller home price index would show a 5.6% overall yearly gain; instead, the 12-month improvement was 4.9%. The National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index rose 0.9% in May; the consensus in the same poll was for a 1.4% increase.

THIS WEEK: Monday, Wall Street will react to the Greek bailout referendum and consider ISM’s June non-manufacturing PMI. Nothing major is slated for Tuesday. Wednesday, the June Federal Reserve policy meeting minutes arrive and Alcoa releases Q2 results to kick off the new earnings season. On Thursday, the Street looks at new initial claims figures plus earnings from PepsiCo, Barracuda Networks and PriceSmart. Friday, Fed chair Janet Yellen speaks on the U.S. economic outlook in Cleveland; also, a Census Bureau report on May’s wholesale inventories appears.