Economic Update 12/02/13

CONFIDENCE INDEX FALLS, SENTIMENT INDEX RISES

Two respected barometers of consumer mood went different ways in November. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index came in at a disappointing 70.4, down from a revised 72.4 mark for October and well below the 74.0 reading forecast by Briefing.com. November’s final consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan rose to 75.1, topping the Briefing.com projection by 1.6 points.

HOUSING INDICATORS LARGELY IMPRESS

September’s edition of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index found house prices rising 3.2% for the third quarter, 13.3% YTD and 11.2% across the past 12 months. Building permits rose 6.2% in October, with the Census Bureau measuring a 13.9% annual gain. Pending home sales declined for another month: they fell 0.6% for October, the National Association of Realtors noted.

DURABLE GOODS ORDERS DECLINE

Overall hard goods orders slipped 2.0% in October, partly reversing the 4.1% increase in September. The silver lining? The Census Bureau found that October’s retreat was just 0.1% with transportation orders removed.

NOVEMBER ENDS WITH FURTHER STOCK GAINS

The NASDAQ was the frontrunner among the big three U.S. indices last week, rising 1.71% to 4,059.89. Both the S&P 500 (+0.06% to 1,805.81) and Dow (+0.13% to 16,086.41) realized tiny gains during the abbreviated trading week. Turning to the NYMEX, oil and gold both had poor Novembers: on the month, gold slid 5.46% to $1,250.60 an ounce and light crude dropped 3.60% to $92.72 a barrel.

THIS WEEK: Monday, ISM releases its November manufacturing PMI and the Census Bureau provides September and October construction spending data. Tuesday, the Commerce Department releases figures on November auto sales. On Wednesday, ISM puts out its November service sector PMI, the Federal Reserve offers a new Beige Book, the Census Bureau issues long-awaited September and October new home sales figures, and ADP produces its November job change report. The federal government releases its second estimate of Q3 GDP Thursday; also on tap for that day are the November Challenger job cuts report, data on October factory orders, and the latest initial jobless claims numbers. Friday, the Labor Department issues the November employment report, the Commerce Department publishes data on October consumer spending, and December’s preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index arrives.